Since we have not seen a dramatic parabolic rise in S&P500 yet, my assumption is that we might see it towards the end of this year latest into early 2013. Pending how high P5 can bring us, e.g. 1510-1580, the sharper correction period should bring us back to 1200-1100 area.
As for now, I highly doubt that the March 2009 lows will be seen again.
The 1500-1570 area in S&P500 is a major multi decade resistance and I highly doubt we are going to break it by far on the 3rd try in past 12 years monthly chart.
An area just above the 1500 would bring the monthly chart to overbought and weekly to very overbought. We shall bear in mind that a parabolic rise (P5) has very or extreme overbought conditions. We saw that in Crude ( 2007 ), in Silver ( April 2011) and we will see it in many stocks within this year . XLP most likely will be one of those sectors exploding to upside within P5 and probably sectors like Semi Conductors too.