Objective Trader

EURO WEEKLY

Sentiment has reached extremes and there are only a few Euro Bulls left. Exactly the right medicine what Doctor Market subscribes to OT and we listen.   As Chin Wag Members are well informed, a tiny long position in FXE has been entered when Euro was trading at 1.238.  Since we are not into currency too much involved , we leave it with that tiny long position as Miners will benefit anyway from a rising Euro in the near future.

 

The EURO WEEKLY ( FXE ) CHART shows a possible IHS whereby 50% of IHS or SHS are failing. That being said, the weekly chart is oversold enough and mixed with an extreme bearish sentiment the rally can have legs until 1.32 the least and possibly 1.42

Energy Sector Review

Exactly a week ago an article about Energy was published explaining why OT thought it is time to buy and add positions.

Click here  - >Crude - Energy Sector

 

If we look closer we can see that Crude rally strong prior same oversold levels.

May 2010 - May 2011 from 67 - 115 USD

August 2011 - March  2012 from 75 to 110 USD

June 2012 -  ?

We can estimate that we see at least 92 USD and probably more in Crude price

CBI The Ultimate Indicator ( by Bong Trader )

CBI or Clown Bear Indicator has shorted GDX in last 3 years on a weekly or even daily basis. It was the Clown's favorite instrument bucking the trend.

 

Clown Examples

3rd of August 2011

Header  - Once Again My Favorite Short -  

2nd of September 2011

This is a GORGEOUS BREAKOUT, and on top of that, we know that Shalom Bernanke will support the trade all the way to infinity. Finally, a long I can love long time!

 

Note: Wait a minute, in August it was the favorite short and GDX kept on climbing over 62 and all of a sudden at the 2011 ultimate high Mr. Perma Bear himself fell in love with GDX to keep it for a very long time ?

 

Need to go back to inhaling as this is just too much for me to understand

Yours truly

Bong Trader

2.5 Year Pattern in HUI Monthly

Let us have a close look at the HUI Monthly and how to play it long term without being emotional holding long positions to avoid volatility and enjoy profits

Stochastic and CCI is showing us we had so far 3 amazing buying opportunities to enjoy gains of over 200% in the index and the 4th buying opportunity is right now.

 

Spring 2001 - Autumn 2003  in 2.5 years we saw a staggering 4 fold gain in index

Summer 2005 - Winter 2007 in 2.5 years we saw a staggering 2 fold gain in index

Autumn 2008 - Spring 2011 in 2.5 years we saw a staggering  3 fold gain in index

 

This leads me to believe that starting May/June 2012 we add 2.5 Years and we should see a new all time high of at least 2 fold gains by November/December 2014.

The monthly chart always offers in oversold conditions an awesome buying opportunity and ONLY the investors ignoring the noise can enjoy sticking with the trend and pattern. Naturally we will see during the next 2.5 years larger pullbacks but the pattern is clear and the next target is November/December 2014 to exit the longs entered May/June 2012.

 

Weekend Musing - Breadth Charts

Well, we enjoyed this rally very much and especially the Mining & Energy Sector. OT will post over the weekend a related article for both sectors with an intermediate target view.

Meanwhile we shall view below Breadth Charts and enjoy the strength of broad buying.

 

Dow Theory is back above 50 EMA and on a Buy Signal

Breadth Thrust is slightly overbought and 50 EMA remains in upward trend 

NYSE New Highs - New Lows shows immense strength supporting the view that higher prices are to be expected leading us into mid July the least before we would see a meaningful pullback. The last time we saw NYHL at the red line drawn ( 400 mark ), the indices took another 2 month to make a new high. Keep that in mind for your portfolio.

NYSE Advance - Decline is very strong and confirming that higher prices are ahead of us

NYSE Summation Index remains on a Buy Signal and trading against it is for fools ! I cannot point that out often enough.  Until the chart is telling us a break downwards is imminent, we stay long and the chart is showing that it has lots of room to the upside.

NYAD Cumalitive remains in bullish territory and has more room before becoming overbought

 

Summary:

Unlike our favorit contra indicator and friendly Perma Bear, we do not jump in and out of positions nor do we change our view on an hourly or daily basis. WE await the signal whether long or short ( stay cash ) and stick with the signal. As for now we keep staying long with our Mining & Energy Positions and nothing has changed. Miners have been entered and accumulated in May and Energy Stocks in past 2 weeks.  

The old saying is " Trade Less and Make More " by sitting tight and sticking with the trend.  All the unnecessary emotional amount of trades is actually causing losses. Those behaviour is for fools and funny Perma Bears publishing one day an array of Charts ( SHorts ) and the next day with a strong rally trend day all of a sudden Charts ( Long ) to confuse not only their Bear Porn addicted readers also their trading account. Do not fall into the trap of those Bears as they have no clue of a bottoming process and positive money flow.

Enjoy your weekend and your profits